Monday, January 3, 2011

Forecast Update Monday Jan 3 2011

An Alberta Clipper system has triggered a few light snow showers and flurries across the region.  The low is centered over the great lakes and the front is currently passing through Northern Illinois.  Little or no snow accumulation is expected.   Once this system passes we will dry out tonight and skies will gradually clear for Tuesday.  This system will also usher in some colder temperatures for tomorrow.  Today temperatures climbed into the low to mid 30s, but tomorrow temperatures will be in the 20s for highs. 


Infrared Satellite

Current Radar
 The infrared satellite imagery shows the clouds associated with the Alberta Clipper, but the highest clouds are located over Wisconsin.  Most of the snow showers right now are located over the Illinois/Wisconsin border, which is evident based upon surface observations where most locations in southern Wisconsin are reporting snow (shown below).  Winds are coming out of the SSW, but are rather weak right now.  The gradient associated with system is weak, hence, one of the reasons why the precipitation is not that heavy.


National surface map shows the colder temperature just off to our northwest.  Those temperatures will be here for Tuesday as this system progresses to the east.  You can also see the ridging of warmer temperatures ahead of the system from Oklahoma, Missouri, Illinois and further north and east into Ohio.  High Pressure is located over the central plains and will be over Illinois tomorrow providing us with quiet but colder weather conditions.

MODEL DISCUSSION/FORECAST
GFS and NAM models appear to be in fair aggreement for the short term.  
The GFS shows the system currently impacting the area pushing off to the east tomorrow.  Skies will gradually clear throughout the morning hours and we will stay dry for most of Tuesday and early Wednesday.  The next system begins to enter Northern Illinois between 6-8pm Wednesday evening (shown below).  Accumulating snow is more likely with this next system.  However, I am expecting the accumulations to be around one inch of snow.

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR DEKALB AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS

TONIGHT:  A chance of a passing flurry or quick snow shower.  Little or no snow accumulation expected.  Low: 19      Winds: shift from SW to W overnight 5-15 mph.

TUESDAY: There will be clearing skies in the morning with partly sunny skies.   High: 25  Winds: 5-15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT:  Increasing clouds as the next system approaches.  Low: 15  Winds: SW 5-15 mph.

WEDNESDAY:  Partly cloudy to start the day.  Clouds will increase during the afternoon and light snow could begin between 6-8pm.  High: 30  Winds: shift from SW to W 5-15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:  The chance for snow continues light accumulation possible.  Total accumulations up to an inch possible.   Low: 12  Winds: NW 5-10 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly Cloudy with another chance of snow.  Little or no snow accumulation expected.  High: 22

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